Poll tracker: Little movement in opinion but more detail on potential result

Farage’s Reform UK were the big winners in the 4th week of campaigning. Nigel Farage in 2017. Image: Gage Skidmore via Wikimedia Commons, edited by BallotBox.

The public appears to be making their minds up as to who they’ll vote for in just over a weeks time. This weeks poll tracker shows little movement compared to last week - Labour maintain their big lead over the Tories, who for the time being still have a small lead over Reform UK.

Farage’s party were the main winners from this week, seeing their share of the polls go up by almost 1%.

Whilst we may not have seen any drastic changes this week, there has been a lot more data revealing how the election will play out. Several MRP projections have been published this week as well as a few constituency polls.

The most eye-catching of these were the WeThink polls for Waveney Valley in Suffolk and North Herefordshire, both showing a surge in support for the Greens:

These were 2 of the 4 seats (the others being Bristol Central & Brighton Pavillion) that the Greens announced as their primary targets, and they did well in the local elections in these parts. If this were to happen on July 4th it would be seismic - two Tory safe seats in rural areas swinging sharply towards the Greens, perhaps thanks to the rise of Reform taking votes away from the Conservatives and splitting the right-wing vote.

Based on this weeks tracker, our seat projection predicts a 292-seat Labour majority, up from 286 last week. Compared to last week, Labour are on 471 seats (up 3), Tories on 74 (up 3), Lib Dems on 60 (down 3), SNP on 15 (down 6), Greens on 4 (up 2), Plaid Cymru on 3 (no change), Reform on 3 (up 1) and Independents on 1 (no change).