This week saw most of the major parties launch their election manifestos, yet the biggest losers in the polls in the past 7 days have been the Conservatives, down 2% on last week to 21.3%, and Labour who still maintain their 20%+ lead on 41.6%, but lose 2.2%. The main beneficiary has been Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, up 2.2% to 14.9%. This week, we saw the first poll that showed Reform ahead of the Tories by 1%, however YouGov’s findings haven’t been replicated in any other poll published this week and our tracker shows the right-wing party 6.4% behind the governing party on average.

What’s most interesting this week is that Reform now appear to be taking support from both major parties. Last week, Labour lost a percent at the expense of Reform, but now both the major parties are on the decline. Support for the Liberal Democrats has also increased this week, by 1.3% up to 11%. Their manifesto launch appears to have been a success, as well as leader Ed Davey’s tactic of eccentric campaign stunts. The Greens saw a slight increase, up 0.4% to 6% - a result that if reflected in the general election would be their best ever vote tally, above their achievement in 2015 of 4.3%.

Should these figures be replicated on July 4th, BallotBox estimates Keir Starmer would head into government with a 286-seat majority, the biggest ever in the history of Parliament. The Tories would retain a fraction of their 2019 haul on 71 seats, just 8 seats ahead of the Liberal Democrats on 63. The SNP would lose half their seats, down on 21. The Greens would gain a seat and sit on 2, Reform UK would win seats at a general election for the first time - our estimate shows them on 2. The model also predicts 1 independent would be elected, most likely Jeremy Corbyn in Islington North - a poll in this seat will be conducted by Survation over the next week so keep an eye out for that.